The results of parliamentary elections and referendum in support of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko exceeded all expectations of the ruling elite and provoked political conflicts both in Minsk and on the international arena. Minsk succeeded in three main tasks: election of pro-presidential deputies into the parliament in the first round, absence of opposition there, and positive result of the referendum.
Under secret approval of Moscow, Lukashenko carried out a resourceful plan on actually unlimited prolongation of powers. Having won 77% in his support and removed the statement on limitation of presidential government by two terms from the Constitution, he has got opportunity to stand for election for unlimited number of times. No one representative of the radical opposition won the elections, so, as a result, the parliament is absolutely under control of the President. No more than 500 persons agreed to participate in the meeting of protest against election fraud in the center of Minsk, but even such a meeting was broken up by OMON.
The West perceived the results of Lukashenko’s political initiative in extremely negative way. The claim of the US President emphasized that the parliamentary elections and referendum in Belarus were held under pressure. The European Union claimed the elections did not correspond the international democratic norms.
Tragic incidents with journalists also heated dissatisfaction of western powers. They were interpreted as attack on free press and human rights and success of dictatorship. Publications of western mass media concerning the referendum abounded with such wordings as “farce”, “voting parody”, “staging”. Moreover, no one edition chucked away opportunity to criticize Moscow for connivance to “the last dictator of Europe”.
In fact, the support took place. Sharp reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry concerning introduction of preparing economic sanctions by the USA with respect to Belarus is evidence of this. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed Russia did not support adoption of sanctions by other countries with respect to the others. The active “protection” of Minsk by Moscow is evidence that the scenario of Lukashenko’s third term is acceptable for Moscow.
Long competition for Belarus with the USA makes Moscow support Lukashenko. Moscow not only does not hurry to join the western anti-Lukashenko’s coalition, but also protects him against the US and EU attacks. Russia clearly understands that its geo-strategic aims and plans of the western actors essentially differ.
Dismissal of Lukashenko and possible coming to power of a pro-American political leader are fraught with integration of Belarus into western structures and serious cooling of relations with Russia. Moscow chooses lesser of two evils. The political partner, who is inconvenient for it, is completely ignored by the USA and EU, which eliminates an opportunity of rapprochement of Minsk with the West for a certain period. Proceeding from this, geopolitically, the results of the referendum and parliamentary elections in Belarus can be considered as relatively positive for Russia.
Lack of Russia’s political influence on Moldova threats to lead to economic losses. In the light of tense relations with Kishinev after last year’s failure of “Kozak’s plan” on creation of asymmetric federation, President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin started attack on Russian property in Pridnestrovie. Having reduced Russia’s role in the process of Moldavian political settlement under participation of western structures a year ago, now Kishinev economically strengthened anti-Russian position.
On the initiative of Voronin, the parliament of Moldova abolished results of large-scale privatization on the left bank of Dnestr, active participants of which were Russian businessmen. Now all privatization transactions are regarded as nude. Since 2003 Tiraspol has actively started to sell its plants and factories, and Russia was the main buyer of them. So, Russian businessmen bought Bendersk plant “Pribor”, “Moldavozolit” (on par with Germans), Moldavian HEPS, Moldavian metallurgic plant (MMP), wine plant “Bouquet of Moldova ”, Bendersk cable plant, shoe factory “Teghina”.
In case of practical realization of the legislation, economic and political presence of Russia in Pridnestrovie will get narrow, which lead to final loss of influence on Kishinev. Formed precedent can be repeated in Georgia. Tbilisi has already warned Moscow that any transactions bypassing the Georgian authorities are considered as illegal.
Tumultuous development of situation in unrecognized republics of the former Georgian SSR left aside purely economic questions. Tbilisi’s claims emphasized Moscow’s failures with respect to Caucasian unrecognized republics, in particular, at the Abkhazian elections.
Instability in Abkhazia was aggravated at a background of judicial protractions with considerations of claims of presidential aspirants: winner Sergey Bagapsh and looser Raul Khadgimba. Claims of the candidates are diametrically opposite. Khadgimba demands conducting of repeated elections on the whole territory of the country, and Bagapsh demands recognition the results, which are successful for him.
In the light of famous resignation of Chair of the Supreme Court Alla Avidzba, consideration of the case was delayed. New resignation of the highest echelons of authority of the republic aggravated tension that appeared after resignation of Chair of CEC and three other member of the Committee, which, in fact, paralyzed work of the structure. When the trial started, several meetings of the Supreme Court were held in the atmosphere of mutual accusations of the candidates and contradictory evidence of witnesses. A number of representatives of the CEC, including ex-Chair Sergey Smyr, confirmed they were pressured when the decision on the results of the presidential elections was made.
In spite of the fact that, according to legislation, the Supreme Court has to consider claims of candidates for ten days, at a background of political chaos in the republic, it was doubtful from the very beginning. Probably, the process will be delayed for some time, but decision of the court will hardly be in favour of Khadgimba. Probability of the second round is very low.
Moscow officially does not comment on the elections, but, to all appearance, it has already put up with Bagapsh’s victory and now it is working up a strategy of relations with the new elite of Sukhumi and Georgian authorities. The main fears of Moscow are connected with economic questions concerning Russian property in Abkhazia, but it also worries about pro-Georgian orientation, which is possibly even more than that of the former team Ardzinba-Khadgimba.
Feeling concealed anxiety of Moscow, Tbilisi has carefully started to play card of allegedly loyalty of Sukhumi to Tbilisi, claiming, for example, that it does not advice to interfere with the situation in Abkhazia. Most likely, it is a way not only to remind Moscow of its claims, but also to check reaction of Sukhumi. Nevertheless, serious steps of the new authorities to rapprochement with Georgia are unlikely, because the topic of independence of Abkhazia is dominant in republican political rhetoric.
The official visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov to Bulgaria was devoted only to economic problematics, including energy and military-technical cooperation. The parties marked prospects of oil cooperation, however, positions still are not coordinated in final way. Land oil pipeline Burgas-Alexandropolis has to provide with transportation of Russian oil, which is transported in tankers through Black Sea straits now. It is problematic, because the Turkish authorities constantly remind of ecological threat of increasing number of tankers. Most likely, Istanbul prepares diplomatic basis for complete stopping or partially reduction of use of straits after starting of operation of oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Jeihan, which will transport Caspian oil, which is “competitive” for Russian one.
According to Fradkov, memorandum on building of the pipeline is still at “the stage of discussion and designation of interests of the parties”. As it should be expected, Moscow did not agree with offer of Bulgaria concerning equal shares of participation in project of building of the pipeline Burgas-Alexandropolis, insisting on the principle of shares corresponding to deposits.
Attractiveness of the project Burgas-Alexandropolis consists in that it let diversify directions of Russian oil transit. But Russia is not ready to make considerable concessions for it and insists on considerable customs and tax concessions of Bulgarians and Greeks. Speaking in Sofia after negotiations, Mikhail Fradkov claimed he did not refuse actuality of the project Burgas-Alexandropolis, but consider it to be realized only in case of cost recovery, assessment to which will be given by experts from Greece, Bulgaria, and Russia at the beginning of November.
Nevertheless, at present, Russia tries to impose on Bulgarians its rules of game “threatening” them by opportunity of change of pipeline’s route. “Transneft”, which is ready to invest into the pipeline, has already claimed the possibility of its participation in building of a similar branch through Turkey.
At the same time, Russia increases investments into energy sphere of Bulgaria. “LUKOIL”, which bought 58% of shares of oil refining plant “Neftochim Burgas” in October 1999, is not going to stop. For last five years “LUKOIL” invested more than 250 million dollars into the OIP and 100 million dollars in creation of net of oil products’ sales, which consists of 120 filling stations. Head of the company Vaghit Alekperov promised the company would have invested 400 million dollars into Bulgarian economy by 2012. Corresponding memorandum was signed in Burgas.
Besides, Fradkov claimed readiness of Russian companies to participate in Bulgarian tenders on privatization of enterprises in power engineering, transport, and other branches. The only condition of the Russian government is non-discrimination approach with respect to Russian participants. In response, Bulgarian Prime Minister Simeon Saskoburggotsky promised there would no discrimination with respect to Russian companies during privatization of thermoelectric power stations.
It would be especially important from the point of view of Russian power engineering represented by “RAO EES”, which is likely to take part in privatization of thermoelectric power stations “Russia”, “Varna”, “Bobov Dol”. Russia lays claim to adequate cooperation in the sphere of nuclear power. In particular, Russian company “Atomstroyexport” participates as a part of international consortium (with the French and Germans) in tender on completion of nuclear power plant “Belene”.
What concerns prospects of military cooperation, a representative of Russian delegation recognized that there were some movements. Nevertheless, Bulgarian party had to take into consideration Russian claims on piracy form Bulgarian side in the sphere of production of Russian weapons on the former Soviet licenses. Now Russian party counts that the problem will be solved due to the notice order of licensing. Besides, participation of Russia in modernization of Soviet aerotechnics that is in the inventory of the Bulgarian army (helicopters “Mi” and aircrafts “MiG”) is planned.
A week later after return of President of the RF Vladimir Putin from China, details were cleared out, which explain very tolerant position of Beijing concerning vague prospects of building of the main pipeline. During the visit Putin agreed with gratuitous transfer of the debating territories to China: isles of Tarabarov and a half of Large Ussuriysk Island on the river Amour. The Chinese will get about 337 square km of Russian territory. Economists from the Far East calculated that transfer of the islands to China caused damage to the krai in sum of 3-4 billion dollars.
It is considered at the Far East that Russia concluded the treaty on voluntary transfer of the islands to China hoping to draw Chinese investments. Nevertheless, the most probable motive of Russia was a wish to weaken dissatisfaction of China because of change of route of the pipeline in favour of the “Japan” variant. It is interesting that Chinese observers interpret this event in opposite way. As China agreed with partial return of territories, now it expects concessions from Moscow in energy cooperation, including the question of direction of the pipeline. Within the framework of such logics, Moscow should hardly expect reciprocal investment projects.
In the light of strengthening of geopolitical power of China, fearing of repetition of precedent with Damansky island, where bloody encounter between Chinese and Soviet forces took place in 1969, Russian party chose patch of least effort, in fact, “presenting” debating territories to the Chinese, moreover, it is not the fist present of such kind. Damansky was transferred to China in 1991. Thus, at first sight, it finally solved the question of 2% of unsettled border. However, it is not excluded that Moscow again will face geopolitical ambitions of strengthening China, which is fraught with new conflicts, the main sources of which are territorial and migration problems.
