Activization of both local and global actors in post-Soviet space counting on formation of an alternative geopolitical center of power in the CIS was natural consequence of weakening of Russia’s positions. US claims for influence in the strategic region are satisfied due to active cooperation with pro-Western post-Soviet republics.
Pro-Western policy of such ideologists of GUUAM, as Georgia, the Ukraine, Moldova (without Uzbekistan), and Baltic countries, joined NATO last year, is supported by the elites determined on rapprochement with the USA. GUUAM summit in April this year showed clear intention of “orange” leaders, first of all, the Ukrainian and Georgian Presidents, to export Western values to “insufficiently democratic” countries of the region.
To all appearance, their main aim can be formation of the alternative center of power in CIS space supporting new “colour revolutions” and weakening Russia.
Economic support of appearing union is provided due to the start of global oil project Baku-Tbilisi-Jeikhan (BTJ). Besides, the very fact of start of oil transportation (official opening of Sanchagalsk terminal of BTJ took place on May 25) makes Russia nervous. Its worst fears about Kazakhstan’s participation in the project have come true. Russia counted on Kazakhstan concerning integration within the framework of the CIS, EurAsEC, EES, CSTO, and ShOC.
It is important that during two-day’s state visit to Azerbaijan, the Kazakh President signed not only the agreement on Astana’s joining in BTJ, but also the important military-political document – Baku declaration on support of transport corridor East-West. Also the presence of Ukrainian President Yushchenko at the opening of terminal shows geopolitical meaning of the document directed to formation of anti-Russian axis. It can be interpreted as possibility of Kiev’s joining in the new union.
Russia’s attempt to diversify energy markets due to the entry to the American liquefied gas market has ambiguous consequences. On the one hand, visit of US Ministry of Power Engineering Samuel Bodman to Moscow had to intensify energy dialogue of two countries, including formation of the working group on power engineering and Business energy dialogue.
In the upshot of the negotiations the sides declared that export of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia into the USA will be increased in future in tens times (that is a question of Gazprom’s project on the development of Shtokmanovskoye deposit in the Barents Sea). Wahington is objectively interested in the project since gas-consumption in the USA in the nearest 20 years will rise approximately by 50%.
There were different prospects of the oil-pipeline northern route entering the coast of the Arctic Ocean. This project is aimed at elimination infrastructural risks for developing Timano-Pecherskaya province and further towards Kharjaga-Indiga entering mooring facility into the sea in order to load the large tankers that will deliver oil into northern American coast.
On the other hand, announcing his visit at the international energy conference in Washington Bodman did not conceal that he intended “put pressure” and “persuade” tussian government to amend some legislative acts by making them more “friendly towards foreign energy companies”.
This situation compels Moscow to be rather pragmatic towards the terms of cooperation and, on the other hand, to be more attentive to the forming anti-American alliances on the matter of possible joining them. For example, such opportunity may be given by newly setting up nuclear tandem Karakas-Teheran.
Venezuela’s leader Ugo Chaves publicly proposed to develop cooperation with Teheran in the atomic energy. Before, Iran and Venezuela agreed on joint development of the sea oil-shelf at the Venezuela’s coast. Perhaps, these actions provoke considerable anxiety of the USA and that is what Russia can take advantage of in the future.
It is known, that Russia is already cooperating with Iran on the matter of supplies of “peaceful atom” and with Venezuela on attempts to coordinate oil-partnership. At this point, against the background of further intensification of geo-political positions of the USA it is not excluded that Moscow may close in with the countries known for their controversial relations with the “world hegemon”.
Another potential anti-American alternative is given by Brazilia. Its president Lula da Silva on his way to Seoul made a “technical stop” in Yekaterinburg where he was received by the governor of the Sverdlovsk’s region Eduard Rossel. The negotiations resulted in the coordination of the possible ways of cooperation in the machinery (at the Middle Urals on the basis of Uralvagonzavod there may be set up Russian-Brazil carriage JV) and the pipe industry.
At the same time, this visit is important not only due to the certain agreements but their geo-political background. Activation of contacts between Russia and Brazil goes I line with the concept of formation of the Axis BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China) that is uniting so called new industrial countries potentially confronting American influence.
