Gas-battles between Russia and Ukraine got their logic development. Moreover, the conflict status was automatically raised when the Russian president got involved. During the meeting with the head of Verkhovnaya Rada of Ukraine Vladimir Litvinov that was held within the international economic forum in Saint Petersburg Vladimir Putin dwelled on the problem of the Russian lost gas from the Ukrainian underground gas-stocks (UGS).
Though in a rather mild form, Putin confirmed steady intention of Moscow to gain payment from Kiev for the lost gas post factum. This toughness is not without a reason. Last week pro-western orientation of Ukraine that is this way or another impeding establishment of structural relations with Moscow got another proof.
Kiev had undertaken some active though not very successful steps towards euro-integration. Though the Brussels’ officers expressed their nominal loyalty to the Ukrainian side during the meeting of the Ukraine –EU Cooperation Council still Kiev failed in gaining status of the country with market economy and facilitating its visa-regime.
Though Kiev beforehand refused entry visa for the EU citizens, Europe does not hasten for reciprocal actions. EU is determined to associate facilitation of visa regime for Ukraine with re-admission: as long as Ukraine is unable to control the flows of illegal migrants visa regime is unlikely to be facilitated.
At the same time, regardless of some failures, Moscow is very much irritated by the pro-western initiatives of Kiev bypassing Russian interests including energy sphere. Though Ukraine had already got official refusal from Germany from gas-cooperation without Russia, nowadays Ukraine starts new attempts towards France.
During her visit in Paris the Ukrainian premier Yulya Timoshenko held several meetings with the representatives of the French energy companies. One of the pivotal tasks was re-completion of the oil-pipeline Odessa-Brodi that Kiev expects to provide its energy independence due to detached entry into the gas markets.
Not less ambitious though not so much profitable seem to be the Kiev’s projects concerning gas-pipeline construction from Turkmenistan or Iran through Ukraine into Europe. Timoshenko suggested representatives of Gaz de France to become partners in this projects as early as in May and now she tries to fix the result. And though there is not clear response from the French side, Moscow is irritated by the very fact of such negotiations.
In line with dangerous tendency for Russia of energy re-orientation for West come declarations of Azerbaijan concerning cease of its oil transportation via the pipeline Baku-Novorossiysk. As to the official plans of the BP Azerbaijan, since June 15, they plan to start transportation of oil from their contract-deposit Azeri via the rail-road into the Georgian ports at the Black Sea.
Azerbaijanian side explained its decision by “economic profitability” (supplies via railroad to the Georgian direction are alleged to be three times cheaper), however, there is demonstrative political background. Besides, in contrast with Ukraine, Azerbaijanian initiatives have impartial basis, above all, that is already launched global oil-pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Dzhejkhan (BTD) that had changes the balance at the Caspian region not in Russian favor.
Now, the oil priorities of Baku seem like the following: BTD, oil-pipeline into Georgia Baku-Supsa, supplies into Georgia via railroad and only then comes the oil-pipeline Baku-Novorossiysk. It is not excluded that in the conditions of refusal from cooperation with Russia part of Azerbaijanian resources will be strived for by Ukraine that is interested in in-building into the global energy system at the post-soviet space without Russia.
However, the Azerbaijanian developed resources are not limitless and at the background of necessity to fulfill the priority direction of BTD the Ukrainian interests as well as the Russian will be neglected. Though nowadays BP Azerbaijan declares that for a some time via Baku-Novorossiysk they will transport about 80 th. tons of oil per month, still Moscow should expect the final decision on refusal from the pipeline Baku-Novorossiysk approximately as early as in this November, when BDT starts working at a full scale.
The oil-supplies initiative for Russia may be taken up for some time by the State Oil company of Azerbaijan (SOCA) that have recently addressed the Russian side with purpose to increase their monthly oil-pumping via the pipeline Baku-Novorossiysk from current 330 th. to 450 th. tons per month. However, total pro-western orientation of Azerbaijan, including the oil sphere, in the nearest future may bring to naught Russian-Azerbaijanian cooperation.
Tense relations between Russia and the Baltic States have resulted from the demonstrative anti-Russian spirits that last week got their documental confirmation. The Lithuanian Seim (Parliament) was introduced a resolution “On commemoration of 65-anniversary of the soviet occupation and the onset of mass-deportation” (on June 14, 1941 in Siberia and the Far East first echelons with the Lithuanians were send off), that once again tells about endamagement that Russian should reimburse.
Five years ago the Lithuanian Seim had already adopted similar law by putting forward a compensational account for Russia of $20 bln. Then Moscow neglected Vilnius’ pretenses, however, the latent conflict may burst out anew. In the new resolution Lithuania insists on the pensions for the concentration camps prisoners and the exiled as well as compensation for health loss. Vilnius demands from Russia to reveal the burial places of the champions for Lithuanian independence and bring back their remains into the motherland as well as the taken out cultural values.
The Lithuanian Seim expresses anxiety because of the Russian officials’ attempts to “justify or absolutely deny soviet occupation”. Moreover, resolution expresses gratitude to the Euro Parliament and the USA’s Congress for support in this question. Besides, Vilnius appealed EU and NATO to build their relations with Moscow dependant on its recognition of the fact of occupation of the Baltic States. And though Moscow seems to neglect once again the Lithuanian demands, its attempts to internationalize the problem and appeal to the international actors will not be neglected by Russia and it may aggravate anyway complicated relations with Lithuania and all the Baltic States.
At the background of the tense situation at the post-soviet space that is based on the stable pro-western orientation of the post-soviet regimes, the competition between Moscow and West is getting more acute. In this conditions Russia desperately needs to develop an alternative to the western vector trend of its foreign policy. Attempts to form potentially anti-western alliances are aimed at the countries of the Middle East, Latin America and South-Eastern Asia.
In particular, last week the speaker of the Russian State Duma Boris Grizlov officially visited China. Regardless of the fact that the visit’s schedule did not contend principal meetings and agenda did not stipulate for serious decisions (the only signed document appeared to be the Charter of the Committee on Cooperation between the Parliaments of Russia and China) the very fact of this visit into China is of a great significance.
Russia is obviously not to refuse from the idea of forming the strategy axis Moscow-Delhi – Beijing. At the same time, actual intensions of Moscow will be demonstrated during privatization of the vertically integrated holding Rosneftegas where the Chinese expect to get certain share. Depending on whether Chine is given certain preferences one may tell about stable economic background of the forming alliance.
