One of these days war experts guessed whether the US would launch war against Russia in 10 years. After all they gave positive answer. That’s why Russia should develop its military power and to keep an eye on the nuclear screen. This is the only way Russia will manage to survive aggressive policy of the “Washington hawks”. Whereas experts of the newspaper “Vzglyad” don’t dramatize the subject. The US don’t have its own missile ballistic system. They must think of their security.
Some competent war experts discussed the subject “Is armed conflict between Russia and NATO at the head of the US possible in the near future”. “The war is possible in case Russia provokes the US. How? By supporting key opponents of the US, such as China, Iran, Venezuela and others”. Otherwise experts didn’t produce direct proofs of the war. Everything depends on the circumstances. Still, if to have a look on the American incursion into Afghanistan and Iraq, it becomes evident that absurd scenario may work in ten years.
Vice-president of the War expert Collegium of the Russian Federation Alexander Vladimirov gave the most pessimistic outlook. He doesn’t doubt that Washington turned its mind to the Russian mineral wealth. The US will attack Russia so that to get to our natural primary products. To his words this war may start in 10 years.
The only person of presented on the conference who didn’t trust in such scenario was vice-president of the War experts Collegium general-colonel Victor Esin. He had a very ordinary argument: if to bear in mind consequences of this war, they are profitable neither for Russian nor for American “strategic interests”. Discussing possible allies in the future war, experts found a common denominator. To Leonid Ivashov`s mind, the US will fight with the help of NATO armament. “The EU in whole will carry war against Russia reluctantly, except the GB, Poland and the Baltic States”, the general-colonel predicted. Participants of the Pact for Joint Security Organization (ODKB) will not leave Russia under the hatches. They will repulse attacks of the “Washington hawks” by their armament. But Byelorussia will become the most courageous of all. Ivashov seems to believe that in 10 years Alexander Lukashenko will remain his position and our relations will hold on. “Byelorussia will fight with its war, economic and spirit power”, Ivashov supposes.
But Alexander Sharavin adheres another opinion. “ODKB exists rather to protect its other participants than to secure Russia”, Sharavin is sure. Alexander Vladimirov thinks that the US in NATO allies “will be inspired with awe”, cause Europe remembers the previous war and doesn’t want it any more. “ODKB members will fight on Russia’s side, and they have no other way of survival”, Vladimirov said. The experts advice Russia not to come up against the US so that not to be attacked. Russia also should develop its army, military industry, to overwork latest weapons and to rely on the nuclear powers. Besides, it would be better to improve the officers.
The deputy director general of the Center for Current politics in Russia Alexander Shatilov expands the subject: whether the geopolitical tension may last more than 60 years. “As the international practice shows a certain tensions threatens the world periodically. For a while we might get off lightly by local wars. The question is for how long this will go on”, Shatilov said to VZGLYAD.
The political scientist shares experts` anxiety about aggravation of struggle not only for strategic resources, but also for water, products and others. The bad tendency is demographical misbalance, when population of the developed countries reduces whereas it grows in the third world ones.
Speaking about Russian-American relations, the experts agrees that their survive worsening. “Countries don’t demonstrate it openly and hold the line of the latent contradiction, but the real severity is evident. It consists in Russian attempts to get back certain lost positions of the 80-90th that arouses the US discontent”, Shatilov supposes.
However the political scientist doesn’t ventures to predict how much fundamental these contradictions will become. “Moreover the US didn’t create their anti missile system. Russia is equipped enough to strike back”, the expert concluded.
Published: business newspaper “Vzglyad”, 19th of July 2007.
