Alexander Shatilov, the deputy director general of the Center for current politics in Russia
There are too much annoying remarks of the Russian power opponents about so-called inertial scenario and predictability of the electoral campaign 2007-2008, as well as irate tirades about “populism” of some political and administrative initiatives of Vladimir Putin`s followers. But mostly such evaluations of the current situation may issue from those having promised either communism up to the 1980th or “Volga” for two vouchers.
To my mind, one must regard “inertia” of the current electoral campaign as a merit to the present regime. Public order and conflict-free political process are based on public trust to the state institutions. This is the most comfortable aligning on the eve of power modification.
Opposition activity fell into decay due to the off-season and crucial financial, organizational and personnel problems. The past 7 days are characterized by gradual breakaway of Sergey Ivanov. While Mikhail Fradkov, Dmitry Medvedev and Alexander Zhukov were absent he was in the governmental chair for the first time. Moreover Sergey Ivanov became the first deputy chairman, after Vladimir Putin, in the settled Russian organizational committee “Pobeda”. If to speak about Dmitry Medvedev, he is considered to be a “successor-understudy” rather than “crown prince”. Though everything may change after all this time. Frequent turnings in the modern history of the Russian “succession” prove it regularly.
Similar processes may be viewed on the partial and political area. Rating lag between “The Joint Russia” and “The Just Russia” becomes more and more visible (46% feat 5%, according to the latest All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (WCIOM)). “The Just Russia” was shown inadmissibility of harsh steps (offering of the popular “infringer of the convention 2004” Sergey Glazjev). Without powerful and unusual steps Sergey Mironov will have to humble role of the third, bronze prize-winner (after “The Joint Russia” members and KPRF), that doesn’t correspond to the speaker’s ambitions.
The given scenario may be called inertial, which seems to satisfy both President and leading nomenclature-political groups in his milieu. The latter made sure themselves in the current political scheme and started working for the good of common triumph instead of fierce struggle. Though we will surely get a lot of intragroup conflicts about “tactic” aspects (for example, on account of distribution of finance for the Olympic installations and infrastructure). But all of them don’t possess necessary sources to destabilize conditions and to let loose irreconcilable opposition to give a dare to the present system of power in Russia.
That’s why I may mention nothing special except nomination of Mikhail Kasyanov for presidency on behalf of the newly founded movement “People for democracy and fairness”. System opposition by way of Union of Right Forces and General Office of Public Prosecutor started agitation against banks unwarrantably giving too high rate for the consumer credit.
The following week won’t bring principal changes into the pre-electoral aligning of forces. Leaders (“The Joint Russia” and “official” successors) will go on consolidating success together with sounding news causes. For example, Dmitry Medvedev will go on dealing with national projects, strengthening the problem of available habitation and demographic crisis overcoming. His “vis-à-vis” Sergey Ivanov will take part in the worldwide known air show MAKS-2007. To speak about “The Joint Russia”, it will work in the line of state values. Its representatives, for sure, will take part in discussing system strategic project devoted to the conservative reforms in Russia under the aegis of the Russian Orthodox Church –‘Russian doctrine”. They will also participate in the dimensioned celebrations of the Day of martial glory on the occasion of Kursk fight in 1943. The second, regional, stage of the project “Professional team of the country” will start as well. Its aim is to select properly the most promising personnel into Russian elite command.
The following week may bring changes to the right forces-they will try to use with good effect forgotten victories of their ideological forerunners over elders from State Committee for the Emergency Department. At the same time “system” and “non-system” liberals will try to take part in the celebrations of the Russian flag’s Day (though lately they have marched under various standards, starting from black and white, “apple” and finishing with hammer and sick). Probably, their real activity (despite the declared “all-Russian” manner of the event) will be restricted by dances with bayan on the Gorbaty Bridge near the White House along with old democratic stagers` remembrances about their revolutionary youth.
Along with that we may predict that the “The Joint Russia” will easily take off the “Holiday of tricolor” from the Union of Right Forces. Especially when its representatives are proving its loyalty to the state symbols. Let’s remember the recent polar expedition at the head of Arthur Chilingarov, who pegged Russian territories in Arctic with white-blue-red flag.
If to speak about another significant date for the dissident public – 39th anniversary of the Prague spring suppression-only Valeria Novodvorskaya and Sergey Kovalev will register themselves with protests against the Soviet totalitarianism due to the fact that the problem is not in demand among electorate any more.
The former opponents of the liberals and their allies today – communists – will prove themselves as well. They traditionally fight for farmers’ interests in August by organizing mass actions in support of the domestic agricultural producers. But the problem was actual in 1990th and today it has become humdrum of the most party programs. It is no other than minister of agriculture, a member of the top council of “The Joint Russia” Alexey Gordeev who deals with its implementation.
Nevertheless Zuganov supporters will depict protest activity so that to mobilize its trusting aged electorate whereupon they will go back home with a sense of performed obligation after rolling up their standards.
There’s little point in awaiting the situation to intensify due to the legal investigation of the mass riots in September 2006 in Kondopoga city court. Certainly, ‘The Great Russia” members and Movement against illegal migration will try to use this event with good effect, but still in their marginal and hardly noticeable manner.
So, does inertial scenario go on living and winning? We’ll see, because there are few days left before the official start of the pre-electoral campaign. As experience has shown no elections managed to avoid surprises…
Published: business newspaper ‘Vzglyad”, 20th f August 2007.
