The trend of polarization of the Russian elite suggesting different models of behavior in the crisis situation finally shaped last week. Some part of the elite, they can be conditionally called liberal reformers, stand for fundamental reconstruction of the political system; others, the conservators, are pushing forward the idea of Russia’s autarchy as an extreme measure with the objective to maximally isolate the country from consequences of the global crisis.
In the context of this confrontation the perception of 2020 Strategy and forums devoted to it has changed. Currently not only the letter of the document is important, which will be revised not once in the light of the crisis, but rather its spirit envisaging gradual modernization of the political system without its fundamental destruction like in the 1990s. Since confrontation of the two groups is likely to finish with a compromise, the struggle for control over the discourse of the modernization project is being brought into the foreground. The winner will claim authorship of the Russian political system in the second decade of the 21st century.
However, the current system is enough durable so far, which was demonstrated by the regional elections whose results were drawn last week. United Russia managed to preserve dominant positions, although they weakened in a number of regions in favor of parliamentary minorities. This, however, does not pose any threat to the political system on the whole. Thus, if there is no new serious decline in social and economic parameters, United Russia will manage to retain its domination in the crisis period. The municipal election results were alarming for the party of power as it failed in some cases to ensure simple majority or mayor posts. Moreover, conflicts of local clans surfaced and UR failed to settle or at least conceal them.