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2008-10-06   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 29.09.2008-05.10.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev submits a set of anti-corruption bills to the State Duma

Dmitry Medvedev

 

The bills will be approved but their implementation may be sabotaged on a regional level

Information about the beginning of reforms in the General Staff is posted

 

Anatoly Serdyukov

The minister’s reforms may provoke unification of discontented generals around new centers, e.g. the paradise group

Arrest of a high-ranking officer of the railway troops, Yevgeny Kornishin

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

It may somewhat neutralize activities of generals’ Fronde

Economy minister  Elvira Nabiullina says about undesirability of merger of some entities subordinate to the ministry on the basis of the Federal Agency for Managing State Property

Elvira Nabiullina

 

Nabiullina’s proposal may be approved

Prosecutor General’s Office proposes to stop dissemination of  extremism on the Internet

Yury Chaika

 

Prosecutor General’s Office and the interior ministry may launch closer cooperation on fighting extremism

Prosecutor General’s Office proposes to give it back the right to initiate criminal cases against individuals with special status

Yury Chaika

 

Prosecutor General’s Office may get this right

Main provisions of the 2020 Strategy are approved

Elvira Nabiullina

 

Document will be approved but changes in the  financial and economic situation in the country will require adjustments to it

Representatives of three right parties hold a joint press conference

SPS

 

In case of its fast registration, the new party has chances to have its representatives in regional legislatures following the spring elections

Deputy PM Igor Sechin is nominated to Inter RAO UES board

Igor Sechin

 

Radical siloviki will establish control over state assets in the electrical energy sector

Deputy prosecutor general Viktor Grin and State Duma security committee head Vladimir Vasilyev propose to reestablish the ministry for ethnic affairs

 

 

This topic will be promoted by the prosecutor general’s office in the light of fight against extremism

Information is posted that Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree broadening the staff and authority of the presidential property management department

Vladimir Kozhin

 

President will continue stressing continuity of the policy of his predecessor


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2008-09-29   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 22.09.2008-28.09.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Vladimir Putin meets with UR regional activists

Vladimir Putin, United Russia

 

Consolidation on the party field will continue

Vladimir Putin meets with representatives of Just Russia faction in State Duma

 

 

Meetings with parliamentary minorities will be of protocol character

Igor Sechin is appointed head of the government commission for electrical energy sector

Igor Sechin

Sergey Shmatko

Energy ministry will be pushed aside from regulating the electrical energy market

Anatoly Chubais is appointed head of RCNT

Anatoly Chubais

 

There unlikely to be a sharp conflict between Chubais and the Kovalchuk brothers

Oksana Sergiyenko is appointed deputy finance minister

Alexey Kudrin

 

This appointment will to a great extent legalize the existing realities and will not result in changes in the layout of forces inside the ministry

Nikolay Kutin is appointed head of Rostekhnadzor

Nikolay Kutin, Yury Trutnev

 

Kutin used to be the second person in the entity, so there will be no sharp staff changes

Head of Federal Health and Social Development Inspection Service Andrey Mladentsev asks for resignation

 

Tatiana Golikova

Attempts to introduce combination of functionaries and businessmen in the health ministry will stop

Rosprirodnadzor deputy head Oleg Mitvol says he will appeal against decision to dismiss him in court

 

Oleg Mitvol

Natural resources minister Yury Trutnev is unlikely to support Mitvol or he will distance himself from the conflict

Vladimir Putin’s decision to assign additional authority to the naval board headed by Sergey Ivanov

Sergey Ivanov

 

The board’s decisions will still be of recommendation character

The results of check of the Russian Academy of Sciences by the Prosecutor General’s Office are published

Prosecutor General’s Office

Russian Academy of Sciences

The results of the check may become another attempt to launch offensive at the academy’s financial and economic independence

Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s interview with Le Figaro

 

 

Supporters of the thaw will interpret this fact as Dmitry Medvedev’s desire to start crawling liberalization


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2008-09-22   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 15.09.2008-21.09.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev meets with representatives of the public

Dmitry Medvedev

 

The course at renewing an informal public agreement will continue

Dmitry Medvedev meets with businessmen

Dmitry Medvedev

 

Businessmen will accept new conditions of coexistence with state authorities

Yury Vorobyev is appointed deputy speaker of the Federation Council

United Russia

Sergey Mironov

Yury Vorobyev will become UR’s agent of influence in the Federation Council’s leadership

Alexander Torshin is appointed first deputy speaker of the Federation Council

Sergey Mironov

UR, Yury Vorobyev

Torshin is to neutralize Yury Vorobyev’s activities

Dmitry Medvedev signs decree on establishing Oboronservis JSC

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

Sizeable financial flows in the defense sphere will be withdrawn from under control of generals

Audit Chamber reports that it has submitted its plan of activities to fight corruption to the presidential administration

Sergey Stepashin

Yury Chaika

Sergey Stepashin will keep on substantiating the necessity of the AC’s leading role in fighting graft

Sergey Stepashin is included in the presidential council for Olympics preparations

Sergey Stepashin

Yury Chaika

Audit Chamber will intensify its efforts aimed at controlling expenditure of preparations for the Sochi Olympics

Traffic police (GIBDD) authorities become active

 

 

On the threshold of Rashid Nurgaliyev’s possible dismissal leaders of all key entities in the ministry will be trying to demonstrate their administrative activity

Federal Air Transportation Agency head Yevgeny Bachurin says he is being forced to retire

 

 

Bachurin is likely to leave his post

Rosprirodnadzor deputy head Oleg Mitvol sends a letter to natural resources minister Yury Trutnev asking to stop procedure of his dismissal

Oleg Mitvol

Vladimir Kirillov

Mitvol may become head of the public council of Rosprirodnadzor

The government is proposed to appoint long-term financial planning department director Oksana Sergiyenko deputy finance minister

Alexey Kudrin

 

Sergiyenko’s candidature will be approved; however, this will not result in redistribution of administrative influence in the ministry


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2008-09-15   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 08.09.2008-14.09.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Meetings of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev with Valdai discussion club members

Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev

 

Tandem will continue showing coordinated approach

Chemezov-Usmanov alliance wins struggle for Udokan field

Sergey Chemezov, Alisher Usmanov

Vladimir Yakunin, Viktor Vekselberg

Rostekhnologii may later sell its stake in JV

Alexander Smirny is appointed deputy interior minister

Mikhail Sukhodolsky

 

Mikhail Sukhodolsky is likely to become more active in struggle for ministerial post

Dmitry Medvedev signs decree on reorganizing the interior ministry’s structure

Yevgeny Shkolov

Sergey Meshcheryakov

Shkolov may head the interior ministry after Rashid Nurgaliyev leaves

Information is posted about soon amalgamation of the prosecutor general’s office and justice ministry

Alexander Konovalov

Yury Chaika

It is possible that merger will not happen but Yury Chaika will lose his post

Alexey Drobyshevsky is appointed acting head of the defense ministry’s information and PR department instead of Ilshat Baichurin

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

Serdyukov may keep on mopping up his team, which will save him from reproaches for his desire to appoint his protégés to better posts

Vyacheslav Fetisov is appointed senator representing the Primorsky Region

Vitaly Mutko

Vyacheslav Fetisov

Federal Agency for Physical Culture and Sports may be disbanded and its function will be transferred to the sports ministry

Decree on the federal agency for CIS affairs is signed

 

 

Only after the agency’s head is appointed it will be possible to define who has lost and who has won

Vladimir Miklushevsky and Alexander Khlunov are appointed deputy education ministers

Andrey Fursenko, Dmitry Livanov

 

Miklushevsky will continue Livanov’s course of offensive at the positions of the academic community

UR State Duma deputy Viktor Grishin is elected Rector of Plekhanov Russian Academy of Economics

United Russia

 

The policy of gaining control over the university community and turning it from critic to partner of state authorities will continue

Acting natural resources minister Semyon Levi signs order on dismissing Rosprirodnadzor deputy head Oleg Mitvol

Vladimir Kirillov, Yury Trutnev

Oleg Mitvol, Igor Sechin

It is possible that Mitvol will be reinstated

Replacement of Vladimir Putin with Dmitry Medvedev as head of the council for developing physical culture and sports, top level sports, preparing and holding XXII Winter Olympics and XI Winter Paralympics in Sochi in 2014

 

 

Vladimir Putin will de facto continue heading this body

Regional development minister Dmitry Kozak proposes to change procedure of the Investment Fund’s functioning

 

 

Dmitry Kozak is speeding up administrative expansion entering into conflict with the economic development ministry

Alexey Kudrin and Elvira Nabiullina continue their polemics

 

 

Their struggle will continue with varied success

Decree on distributing responsibilities between deputies of economic development minister is signed

 

 

Chances that the ministry will not be disbanded are increasing

Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s interview with The Moscow Times, in which he supported Dmitry Medvedev’s actions in Southern Caucasus

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

 

The ex-mogul will keep on showing reverences to state authorities counting on his release in October

Former press secretary of Nashi movement, Ivan Mostovich, is appointed head of the PR and information department of the Central Election Commission

 

 

The process of recruiting former pro-Kremlin movement members into state bodies will continue


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2008-09-08   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 01.09.2008-07.09.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Meeting of the State Council chaired by president Dmitry Medvedev

Dmitry Medvedev

 

Russian president will intensify attempts to consolidate governors around him

Vladimir Putin’s interview with Rossiya TV channel

Vladimir Putin

 

Duumvirate members will keep on repeating previously voiced theses on Russia’s justified actions and showing lack of fears of confrontation with the West

Rosprirodnadzor head Vladimir Kirillov asks natural resources minister Yury Trutnev to dismiss Oleg Mitvol

Vladimir Kirillov

Oleg Mitvol

Mitvol may be dismissed but not earlier than the government reshuffle in autumn

Igor Shuvalov is appointed head of the organizing committee for preparations for the APEC summit in Vladivostok

Igor Shuvalov

Oleg Safonov, Viktor Ivanov

It is not ruled out that Oleg Safonov’s influence on distributing funds for preparing the summit will decrease substantially

Information is posted about Yury Sharandin’s possible appointment as head of the constitutional department of the Federation Council staff

 

 

Sharandin’s candidature is likely to be approved

A meeting in Moscow of presidential deputy envoys to federal districts regarding strike movement

 

 

The autumn wave of strikes will not be of political character in general

Rostekhnadzor head Konstantin Pulikovsky is dismissed

Yury Trutnev, Vladimir Kirillov

Konstantin Pulikovsky

Process of transferring authority in the sphere of ecological oversight from Rostekhnadzor to Rosprirodnadzor will be accelerated

Prosecutor general Yury Chaika visits anniversary meeting devoted to the beginning of functioning of the Investigation Committee

Yury Chaika, Alexander Bastrykin

 

Reconciliation between the prosecutor general’s office and investigation committee may happen

Information is posted that the prosecutor general’s office may become coordinator of struggle of power agencies against corruption

Yury Chaika

 

Without possibility to initiate criminal cases such functions will be fiction

Anti-monopoly service publishes initiatives aimed at toughening responsibility for violating anti-monopoly legislation

Igor Artemyev

 

Part of these initiatives will be supported by deputy PM Igor Sechin


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2008-09-01   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 25.08.2008-31.08.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin

 

Ratings of president and prime minister will rise

Vladimir Putin’s interviews with CNN and ARD

Vladimir Putin

 

Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev will keep on developing similar theses in mass media

Dmitry Medvedev’s decree on establishing HR commission

 

 

Members of Vladimir Putin’s team will be mainly included in the president’s HR reserve

Official charges against Dmitry Dovgy, former head of the main investigation department of the Investigation Committee

Alexander Bastrykin

Yury Chaika

It is quite possible that Yury Chaika will lose his post this autumn

Alexander Romanchenko, department head of the Federal Subsoil Resource Use Agency, is interrogated by FSB

 

 

This fact is not an element of administrative pressure on the agency’s leaders and will not result in serious consequences

Sergey Mayev, head of the Federal Service for Defense Contracts, declares about revealing abuse of funds totaling more than 22bn rubles

Sergey Ivanov, Viktor Cherkesov

Anatoly Serdyukov

It is quite possible that Ivanov-Cherkesov tandem will try to turn Federal Agency for Procurement of Military and Special Equipment into a really functioning entity

Igor Sechin is appointed head of the government commission for fuel and energy sector

Igor Sechin

Gazprom

This appointment will not cardinally change administrative layout of forces in the Cabinet

Anton Ustinov is appointed secretary of the government commission for fuel and energy sector

Vladimir Ustinov, Igor Sechin

 

The core of radical siloviki will remain solid

Rumors about possible appointment of Anatoly Chubais to RCNT

 

 

Chubais’s allies are likely to be the source of such rumors that have little to do with reality

Oleg Sazonov is appointed head of the department of state regulation of domestic trade of the ministry of industry and trade

Viktor Khristenko

Alexey Gordeyev

Bill on trade will be cardinally revised

Vyacheslav Fetisov’s interview with Sport Express newspaper

Vyacheslav Fetisov

Leonid Tyagachev, Vitaly Mutko

Fetisov will continue publicly confront opponents

FC Zenit wins UEFA Super Cup

Vitaly Mutko

Vyacheslav Fetisov

Fetisov’s chances to retain his post this autumn will decrease substantially


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2008-08-18   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 18.08.2008-24.08.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Reforms in United Russia’s informational and propaganda bodies

UR

 

The party of power will increase informational and propaganda activities

Mikhail Khodorkovsky is denied parole

 

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the liberal revanche group

The oligarch’s possible appeal to the president for pardon is likely to be denied too

Vladimir Kulishov is appointed deputy head of FSB and national anti-terrorist committee

 

 

This appointment will not change administrative layout inside the entity

Establishment in the defense ministry of an organizing committee for preparing a founding conference of a new public All-Russian organization of veterans of the Russian armed forces (OOOV VS RF)

Dmitry Medvedev, Anatoly Serdyukov

 

Dmitry Medvedev’s supporters will continue attempts to broaden their influence on siloviki

Vladimir Putin accompanied by defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov visits hospitals where Russian pilots whose aircraft was brought down in Georgia are being treated

Vladimir Putin

 

Ex-president will keep on underlining his influence on security-related bodies

Federal drug control service head Viktor Ivanov becomes member of the national anti-terrorist committee

Viktor Ivanov

 

It possible that the verticals of the anti-terrorist and anti-drug committees will be combined

Dmitry Dovgiy, former officer of the investigation committee, arrested

Alexander Bastrykin

Yury Chaika

Struggle around reforms of the investigation bodies will sharpen

Stanislav Ananyev is appointed deputy minister of natural resources

Viktor Vekselberg

 

Ananyev will lobby interests of Vekselberg’s entities when reforming environmental taxes

Prosecutor’s office appeals against the court’s decision to disqualify Robert Dudley

Yury Chaika

 

Protest will be rejected

Valery Galchenko is appointed first deputy head of UR’s executive committee

Vyacheslav Volodin

 

This will possibly be followed by appointment of Radiy Khabirov in the presidential administration to supervise United Russia’s regional policies


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2008-07-28   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 28.07.2008-17.08.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Vladimir Putin’s statement regarding Mechel

Vladimir Putin

 

Ex-president will continue dominating on Russia’s political field in the medium-term perspective

Vladimir Strzhalkovsky elected head of Norilsk Nickel

 

 

This appointment will strengthen Vladimir Potanin’s positions

Functions of customs regulation of the agricultural sector are assigned back to the economic development ministry

Ministry of Economic Development

Ministry of Agriculture

It is possible that the economic development ministry will not be disbanded in autumn

Decision to revise the bill on trade

Ministry of Industry and Trade

Ministry of Agriculture

Agriculture ministry may win back part of loss when the bill is debated in the government

Viktor Zubkov is elected head of Rosselkhozbank’s  supervisory board

Viktor Zubkov

 

Zubkov’s status of main lobbyist of the agro-industrial sector will rise

Dmitry Medvedev meets with representatives of pro-Kremlin youth movements

 

 

Projects will not be closed; they will be reformatted

Dmitry Bezdelov is appointed head of the Federal Agency for State Border Maintenance

 

Andrey Belyaninov

Process of turning this entity into a really functioning body will be speeded up

Kirill Kabanov, chairperson of the National Anti-Corruption Committee, says Vladimir Putin’s team hinders Dmitry Medvedev to fight corruption

 

 

After the events in Georgia such attempts to drive a wedge between the two politicians will come to naught

Moscow City Court rules in favor of deputy prosecutor general Alexander Buksman

Alexander Buksman, Yury Chaika

Alexander Bastrykin

Conflict between the prosecutor general’s office and investigation committee will be frozen for a while

Mass media sources post information about reforms in the air forces and anti-aircraft defense forces

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

After the Georgian conflict supporters of these reforms will get additional  arguments

Publication of information about soon appointment of Valery Galchenko deputy head of United Russia’s executive committee for regional policies

Vyacheslav Volodin

 

If this appointment happens, the status of this post will rise

Anatoly Yarochkin is appointed head of the Federal Tourism Agency

Vladimir Strzhalkovsky

 

Strzhalkovsky will retain informal control over the agency


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2008-07-28   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 21.07.2008-27.07.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Vladimir Putin’s statement regarding Mechel company

Igor Sechin, Sergey Chemezov

Igor Zyuzin

Rostekhnologii may attempt to take over this asset

Vladimir Putin inspects his first public reception office in Nizhny Novgorod

Vladimir Putin

 

Vladimir Putin will continue establishing channels of direct communication with the population

Information is posted that presidential administration deputy chief Alexander Beglov will chair Almaz-Antei board of directors

Alexander Beglov

Viktor Ivanov

Rostekhnologii may start showing their interest in this asset

Energy minister Sergey Shmatko is appointed chair of Transneft board of directors

Sergey Shmatko, Bank Rossiya Group

 

This rotation is planned and it will not result in serious redistribution of spheres of influence

Two high ranking officers of the defense ministry are detained in Moscow

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

A new wave of cleansing on the middle level will start in the ministry

Information is posted that ground forces commander Alexey Maslov will soon be transferred to the post of Russia’s military envoy to NATO

 

Alexey Maslov

This rotation is possible not earlier than in several months

Some legislative initiatives of Just Russia are published

Just Russia

 

Just Russia will keep on trying to position itself as social-democratic party

Sergey Vasilyev is appointed chief of the federal registration service

Sergey Vasilyev, Vladimir Ustinov, Igor Sechin

 

Struggle around potential inclusion of the Federal Agency for Registering Real Estate, Federal Agency of Geodesy and Cartography and the Federal Registration Service into the Federal Agency for Managing State Property (FAUGI) will sharpen

Establishment of interdepartmental working group of the Prosecutor General’s Office on fighting inflation

Yury Chaika

 

This measure will help Chaika generate additional mass media interest

Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, criticizes Business Russia’s initiatives

Business Russia

Alexander Shokhin

Competition between two business unions will continue

Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office files a criminal case against Sergey Ponomarev, head of the main center for special communications of the interior ministry

Alexander Bastrykin

Rashid Nurgaliyev

This move will not seriously affect Rashid Nurgaliyev’s positions


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2008-06-09   MAJOR EVENTS 09.06.2008-15.06.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev appoints three deputies of Investigation Committee head

Alexander Bastrykin

Radical security-related bloc (radical siloviki)

Positions of FSB in the entity will be weakening, but this will not lead to appointment of Dmitry Medvedev’s personal staff pool members to posts in the committee

Dismissal of Viktor Rykov, internal security department head of the Federal Drug Control Committee

Viktor Ivanov

Viktor Cherkesov, Alexander Bulbov

‘Cleansing’ of the committee from Viktor Cherkesov’s protégés will continue

Prosecutor General Yury Chaika issues order forbidding investigation of criminal case against members of the tender commission who elected housewife Irina Buksman a notary public in 2005

Yury Chaika

Alexander Bastrykin

This may trigger a scandal that may seriously undermine Yury Chaika’s position

Supreme Court Chairperson Alexander Lebedev says his entity is going to introduce a bill to simplify procedure of prosecuting persons of special status for prosecutors

Yury Chaika

 

If this bill is passed, Yury Chaika’s position will strengthen considerably

Dmitry Medvedev signs bill on public control in prisons into law

Dmitry Medvedev, Federal Prison Service

Vladimir Lukin

There is high possibility that Dmitry Medvedev will sign bill on advocacy into law if it is passed by parliament

Publication of quotes from finance minister Alexey Kudrin’s letter about certain aspects of formation of Rostekhnologii’s authorized capital

Alexey Kudrin

Sergey Chemezov

A decree on forming Rostekhnologii’s authorized capital signed by Dmitry Medvedev will be a compromise

Publication of provisions on the ministry of industry and trade and economic development ministry

Elvira Nabiullina

Viktor Khristenko

Debates over what should be considered customs and tariff regulation will sharpen in the near future

Dmitry Medvedev meets with Vladimir Lukin

Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Lukin

 

President will keep making high profile statements on the necessity to observe human and citizen rights and freedoms

Dmitry Medvedev commissions natural resources minister Yury Trutnev to revise industrial safety legislation

Yury Trutnev

Konstantin Pulikovsky

It is possible that authority of Federal Service for Ecological, Technological and Atomic Inspection will be substantially cut

Andrey Isayev, deputy secretary of the United Russia General Council, says that inside party debates are better than those between parties

United Russia

 

Debates in the party’s regional branches will promote the already adopted decisions


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