Dmitry Medvedev tells about possible pardon of Mikhail Khodorkovsky
Dmitry Medvedev
Khodorkovsky may be granted pardon only if he pleads guilty
Dmitry Medvedev delivers speech within the framework of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum
Dmitry Medvedev
President’s proposal regarding the fifth “i” will be taken into consideration when developing 2020 Strategy
General Staff Chief Yury Baluyevsky dismissed, replaced with Nikolay Makarov
Anatoly Serdyukov
Yury Baluyevsky
All reforms planned by Serdyukov to be speeded up
Vladimir Putin meets with United Russia leadership
Vladimir Putin, United Russia
United Russia will continue showing its readiness for modernization
Regional network of public reception offices of Vladimir Putin to be created on the basis of United Russia
Vladimir Putin, United Russia
This network will become alternative channel of direct communication of the population with PM
Dmitry Medvedev decides to increase the staff list of prosecutors’ offices by 2,000 people
Yury Chaika
Growth in the number of officers will not result in redistributing authority in favor of the Prosecutor General’s Office
Dmitry Medvedev meets with Federation Council Chairperson Sergey Mironov
Sergey Mironov
Dmitry Medvedev may use Federation Council and Just Russia for introducing his initiatives
Vladimir Putin meets with Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov
Vladimir Putin
Representatives of the elites continue to maintain balance of visits to president and PM in favor of Vladimir Putin
Igor Sechin participates in Rosneft shareholders’ meeting
Igor Sechin
Igor Sechin will continue successful activities on the public field
Presidential administration chief Sergey Naryshkin says the plan of forming Rostekhnologii’s authorized capital proposed by Sergey Chemezov has been approved by his office
Sergey Chemezov
Sergey Ivanov, Bank Rossiya Group
This statement does not mean the conflict around disputable assets is coming to its end
Boris Boyarskov appointed head of Federal Service for Communications Supervision
Boris Boyarskov, Bank Rossiya Group
The official’s range of authority and level of independence will be considerably cut compared to his previous position
Dmitry Medvedev approves new structure and appointments in the new government
Vladimir Putin, Igor Sechin, Alexey Kudrin, Alexander Bortnikov, Viktor Zubkov, Alexey Gordeyev
Sergey Ivanov, Alexander Sokolov, Leonid Reiman, Andrey Krainy, Nikolay Patrushev, Vladimir Ustinov
‘Fine tuning’ of the Russian government will continue for several months and result in new conflict lines
Dmitry Medvedev approves new staff of the presidential administration
Vladimir Putin, Sergey Naryshkin, Konstantin Chuichenko, Oleg Markov
Viktor Ivanov
New reshuffle on the upper level of the presidential administration should not be expected before the end of the year
Vladimir Putin declares intention to decrease tax burden on the oil sector
‘Radical’ security related bloc members
Conflict between the ‘party of oil’ and the ‘party of gas’ will sharpen
Igor Sechin is appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC)
Igor Sechin
The process of the USC creation will be accelerated
Viktor Ivanov is appointed to head the Federal Drug Control Service
Viktor Ivanov
Viktor Cherkesov
Cherkesov is trying to speed up the process of creating the Federal Arms Supplies Agency
Media reports on the intention of Boris Fedorov’s UFG Private Equity to sell 49% in News Media Publishing House before the end of the year
Viktor Cherkesov
Cherkesov’s teammates are expected to decrease their media activity
Yelena Valyavina, deputy chair of the Supreme Arbitration Court, says there were attempts of pressure on her by the presidential administration
Dmitry Medvedev, Anton Ivanov
Dmitry Medvedev supporters will continue efforts aimed at raising the role of judicial corporation
Alexandra Ochirova, head of the Public Chamber commission for social and demographic policies, declares intention to create a federal body for veterans affairs
‘Radical’ security related bloc members
Another attempt of the Public Chamber to establish contacts with security related structures will be blocked
Federal Service for the Inspection of Natural Resources Use says it has claims to Rosneft regarding development of Veninsky fields of the Sakhalin-3 project
Rosneft
License will not be revoked
Vladimir Zhirinovsky declares necessity to transfer to the parliamentary republic
In the next several months the successor will not make sharp moves to expand the sphere of his influence
Vladimir Putin’s appointment as prime minister
Vladimir Putin
Key appointments in the new government should be expected this week
Vladimir Putin signs a decree on assessing the work of governors by the government
Control over governors will become one of the main elements in constructing the executive power vertical of Vladimir Putin’s government
Norilsk Nickel says the company will independently participate in the tender for the Udokan deposit license
Sergey Chemezov
It is possible that the alliance of Gazmetall and Rostekhnologii will turn from tactical into strategic
Moscow Arbitration Court rules to oblige Kommersant newspaper and Finansgroup head Oleg Shvartsman to refute information discrediting Rosoboronexport in the businessman’s interview to the newspaper
Sergey Chemezov
This decision will be protested by the defeated side
Prosecutor General’s Office says that the check of the Federal Subsoil Resource Use Agency has revealed serious violations in issuing licenses by the agency
Security-related bloc in the presidential administration
Anatoly Ledovskikh
Attacks on the agency by the Prosecutor General’s Office may continue
Appointment of Vladimir Filippov as chief of the quartering service of the Defense Ministry
Anatoly Serdyukov
Tactics of concessions to the army top brass will not continue after Serdyukov is reappointed
Some mass media sources report that Sergey Markelov, the acting head of the Main Investigation Department of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office, will become the department’s head
Security-related bloc in the presidential administration
If this information is confirmed, rumors of Alexander Bastrykin’s desire to distance himself from the Kremlin security related bloc will stop circulating
Creation of the long term financial planning department in the Finance Ministry
Alexey Kudrin
Elvira Nabiullina
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade may lose some serious functions in the new government
Leonid Nevzlin’s interview to Kommersant Vlast magazine
Attempts to equate Vladimir Putin’s team to Yeltsin’s ‘family clan’ in the media field will continue
Reshuffle and structural changes in the government
Vladimir Putin
Alexey Gromov (?)
Mechanism of the government staff functioning will copy that of Vladimir Putin’s Presidential Administration
State Duma passed bill on heritage centers of former presidents in the second and third reading
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin’s heritage center will become one of the places of temporary location of his staff reserve and a ‘sinecure’ for retirees.
Dismissal of Dmitry Dovgy from the position of the head of the Main Investigation Department of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office
Alexander Bastrykin
Dovgy will try to highlight this scandal in the mass media as much as possible
Dmitry Dovgy’s statement on his intention to appeal against his dismissal in court
Alexander Bastrykin
If the security-related bloc in the Presidential Administration retains its influence, the case will not have prospects in court
Prosecutor General’s Office prescribed the Federal Customs Service to eliminate the violations revealed
Yury Chaika
Chaika will keep reminding everybody of himself avoiding open conflicts
Announcement of the date of auction on selling the Defense Ministry’s land
Yury Petrov, Anatoly Serdyukov
Yury Baluyevsky
The Russian Federal Property Fund will become an organizer of the majority of auctions on selling the Defense Ministry’s property
Maxim Bystrov’s dismissal from the position of deputy minister of regional development and Dmitry Baksheyev’s appointment to this position
German Gref
Baksheyev will supervise preparations for the Olympics in the ministry
Just Russia’s congress
Sergey Mironov, Alexander Babakov
Nikolay Levichev
Levichev may reestablish his positions in the party with Mironov’s assistance
Dismissal of Igor Yakovenko from the position of the Secretary General of the Russian Union of Journalists
Vsevolod Bogdanov
Igor Yakovenko
Yakovenko will not make statements on behalf of the whole journalist community
Dismissal of arrested deputy finance minister Sergey Strochak from his position as EBRD deputy chief and appointment of another deputy finance minister Dmitry Pankin to this position
Pankin will keep officially gaining Strochak’s functions
At the end of April the system of checks and balances built by Vladimir Putin started gaining clear outlines. In particular, to concentrate on solving strategic tasks a lot of technical tasks were transferred from the government level to a level lower. Judging by the news background regarding the first anniversary of Boris Yeltsin’s death, Putin’s intention to remain in power was understood correctly. At the same time Dmitry Medvedev’s allies continued their media campaign aimed at demonstrating considerable public support to the successor in Russia.
Possible and almost inevitable collision of the teams of the two presidents raises the role of mass media that after a ‘long election period’ seemed to have become a secondary instrument of struggle compared to staff resources. Last week events showed this was not true. In particular, former Secretary General of the Russian Union of Journalists Igor Yakovenko, who had expressed his discontent with the authorities many times, was dismissed. Meanwhile, despite the ongoing ‘mop-up’ of the mass media field, leading elite groups demonstrate understanding of the fact that control over mass media will become one of the key conditions of their survival and, possibly, expansion. In particular, Bank Rossiya Group showed its interest in cable television amid the state’s total control over federal channels.
At the end of the month information on possible structure and appointments in the future government continued arriving. While the government structure is becoming clearer, appointment to government positions may be discussed until the last moment. So far, among the favorites to retain their current positions is Finance Minister Alexey Kudrin. There are speculations that new figures will come to the government, including Igor Sechin, Nikolay Patrushev and Krasnoyarsk Region governor Alexander Khloponin.
Staff struggle has practically calmed down as the date of Dmitry Medvedev’s inauguration and promulgation of the new Cabinet and Presidential Administration is approaching. Reports covering such struggle may substantially undermine chances of candidates for responsible positions, which was widely used by their opponents last week. In particular, dismissal of Dmitry Dovgy, the head of the Main Investigation Department of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office, who earlier had been suspended from his duties, was widely covered. His decision to appeal against his dismissal in court contributed a lot to the extent this news was covered. Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, another official who had been in the center of scandal over the previous two to three months, took into account negative experience of his colleagues. Taking into consideration indirect evidence, he has managed to find a compromise with the Russian Federal Property Fund regarding the procedure of selling land belonging to the Defense Ministry in Moscow, which in fact has smoothed the conflict over.
Reshuffle and structural changes in the government
Vladimir Putin
Alexey Gromov (?)
Mechanism of the government staff functioning will copy that of Vladimir Putin’s Presidential Administration
State Duma passed bill on heritage centers of former presidents in the second and third reading
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin’s heritage center will become one of the places of temporary location of his staff reserve and a ‘sinecure’ for retirees.
Dismissal of Dmitry Dovgy from the position of the head of the Main Investigation Department of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office
Alexander Bastrykin
Dovgy will try to highlight this scandal in the mass media as much as possible
Dmitry Dovgy’s statement on his intention to appeal against his dismissal in court
Alexander Bastrykin
If the security-related bloc in the Presidential Administration retains its influence, the case will not have prospects in court
Prosecutor General’s Office prescribed the Federal Customs Service to eliminate the violations revealed
Yury Chaika
Chaika will keep reminding everybody of himself avoiding open conflicts
Announcement of the date of auction on selling the Defense Ministry’s land
Yury Petrov, Anatoly Serdyukov
Yury Baluyevsky
The Russian Federal Property Fund will become an organizer of the majority of auctions on selling the Defense Ministry’s property
Maxim Bystrov’s dismissal from the position of deputy minister of regional development and Dmitry Baksheyev’s appointment to this position
German Gref
Baksheyev will supervise preparations for the Olympics in the ministry
Just Russia’s congress
Sergey Mironov, Alexander Babakov
Nikolay Levichev
Levichev may reestablish his positions in the party with Mironov’s assistance
Dismissal of Igor Yakovenko from the position of the Secretary General of the Russian Union of Journalists
Vsevolod Bogdanov
Igor Yakovenko
Yakovenko will not make statements on behalf of the whole journalist community
Dismissal of arrested deputy finance minister Sergey Strochak from his position as EBRD deputy chief and appointment of another deputy finance minister Dmitry Pankin to this position
Pankin will keep officially gaining Strochak’s functions
United Russia leader Boris Gryzlov proposes Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev to join the party
Dmitry Medvedev will ignore it
Signing of the Charter of Political Clubs of United Russia
United Russia
United Russia will try to considerably broaden its electoral base
Publication of an interview with Alexander Bastrykin, the head of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office, in Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper
Alexander Bastrykin
High level of media activity of heads of security related agencies will remain until early May
Delay in auctions on selling land of the Defense Ministry
Yury Baluyevsky
Anatoly Serdyukov
Auctions may not take place in 2008
Statement made by Russian Navy commander Vladimir Vysotsky that he had not received a written order to study the issue of relocation of the Navy headquarters to St. Petersburg
Yury Baluyevsky
Anatoly Serdyukov
The headquarters will not be moved in the medium-term perspective
Vladimir Kirillov, head of Rosprirodnadzor, Russia’s state environmental watchdog, refuted some statements earlier made by his deputy Oleg Mitvol
Vladimir Kirillov
Oleg Mitvol
Mitvol and Kirillov will try to refrain from open confrontation until May reshuffle
Conference of representatives of liberal opposition in Saint Petersburg
Liberals will not unite
Conference of representatives of left opposition in Moscow
Left opposition will elect new leaders if united
Meeting of the enlarged Board of the Finance Ministry
Alexey Kudrin
Kudrin and Nabiullina will continue polemics until Dmitry Medvedev’s speech at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June
Publication of the Supreme Arbitration Court’s ruling regulating the procedure of applying Article 169 of the Russian Civil Code
Anton Ivanov
Federal Tax Service
Broadening of authority of the judicial brunch will continue
Appointment of senator Yury Sharandin as deputy head of the domestic policy department of the Presidential Administration.
Dmitry Medvedev
The main inflow of the successor’s protégés to the Presidential Administration should be expected after his inauguration
42 years old
1987 – graduated from the law department of The Leningrad State University
1990-1995 – councilor of the deputy chairman of Leningrad municipal council, an expert for external relations in Saint-Petersburg city-hall.
1990-1999 – a lecturer in The Saint-Petersburg State University
1999-2003 – deputy head of the Government office, the Administration of President
2003-2005 – the head of the Administration of President
Since 2005 – the first vice prime-minister
Since 2002 – the chairman of the “Gazprom” Board of directors.
Promoted by the “Joint Russia”. Supported by Vladimir Putin (the head of Putin`s Administration Sergey Sobyanin took the lead of Medvedev`s electoral main office). Expects to win in the first round.
Zhirinovsky Vladimir
61 years old
1970 – graduated from The Institute for foreign languages
1977 – graduated from the law department of the Moscow State University
1977-1990 – worked as a lawyer
Since 1990 – chairman of the Liberal democratic party
Since 1993 – a deputy of the State Duma
Since 2000 –deputy speaker of the State Duma.
Following the results of presidential elections in 1991 Zhirinovsky came finish third (7,81%). 1006 year – the 5th place (5,7%), 2000 – the 5th place (2,7%).
A candidate from the Liberal and democratic party of Russia.
An “old stager” of the presidential elections. His crucial task will be a fight against Gennady Zuganov for the 2nd place.
Zuganov Gennady
63 years old
1969 – graduated from the Orel Pedagogic Institute
1969-1991 – used to work in Komsomol and in the Communist party
Since 1993 – the chairman of the Communist party of Russia, a deputy of the State Duma.
Following the results of presidential elections in 1996 Zuganov came finish second (31,96% in the first round and 40,1% in the second). 2000 year – the 2nd place (29,21%).
A candidate from the Communist Party.
He expects to come finish second again.
In January there aroused some reports about Zuganov`s refusal to participate in the elections due to his failure in media agitation.
Bogdanov Andrey
37 years old
1993 – graduated from The Plekhanov Russian Academy of Economics
In 1990-2001 used to work in Democratic Party of Russia.
In 2001-2003 – a member of the Central political council, head of the Public relations bureau of the “Joint Russia” party
Since 2005 – the chairman of the Democratic party of Russia
Bogdanov plays a role of a “technical” candidate (he must appear as a formal competitor of Medvedev in case other challengers will remove themselves). Bogdanov`s publicity and popularity are far from broad.
Kasyanov Mikhail
50 years old
1981 – graduated from The Moscow State Automobile and Road Technical University
1981-1990 – worked in the State planning Committee
1990-1995 – head of the Ministry of finance department
1995-1999 – the firs deputy Minister of finance
1999-2000 – Minister of finance
2000-2004 – prime-minister
Since 2006 – head of the Russian public and democratic union
He is not allowed by the Central Electoral Committee to participate in the presidential elections. At the same time Kasyanov expects to peg a position of the radical and liberal leader, where he used to compete with Harry Kasparov, Vladimir Ryzhkov, Grigory Yavlinsky and Nikita Belykh.
Center for current politics in Russia
24 January, 2008
5 January. Presidential elections in Georgia. Russia showed only moral support to the Georgian opposition and it will hardly influence power of Mikhail Saakashvili. At the same time Russian authorities suppose that coming soon parliamentary elections in Georgia will weaken Saakashvili and form an efficient opposite fraction in the parliament.
19 February. Presidential elections in Armenia. This company is of tactic interest for Russia. It is an approbation of the project “successor” (Serzh Sarkisyan instead of Robert Kocharyan). At the same time support level of opposite candidates in Armenia is higher than in Russia.
2 March. Presidential elections in Russia. Russian authorities are sure of Dmitry Medvedev`s success in the first ballot. Gennady Zuganov, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and, probably, Andrey Bogdanov will take part in the elections besides Medvedev. The former prime-minister Mikhail Kasjanov seems not to be registered.
April. Accomplishment of price moratorium for food products in many Russian regions will throw authorities into a dilemma between development of inflation and restitution of the state control over prices.
May. New government forming. The most possible scenario is Vladimir Putin`s premiership. At the same time reauthorization between president and prime-minister remains an open question. Who will control security agencies is still one of the key intrigues.
1 July. Liquidation of the Russian Joint Stock company “Unified Energy Systems of Russia” as a part of electrical energy industry reform. Tariff rising may become one of the reform consequences.
7-9 July. G8 Summit in Toyako. Dmitry Medvedev, Yasuo Fukuda and Gordon Brown will make their debut. The last summit for George Bush.
8-24 August. Summer Olympic Games in Peking . As the Games draw on the discussion about China engaging political an economical leadership from the U.S. will run high.
15 October. Presidential elections in Azerbaijan. Russian authorities are sure of the leader in force Ilham Aliev`s success. Azerbaijan opposition is weaker than in Armenia and in Georgia.
4 November. Presidential elections in the U.S. Russia expects any new president to behalf towards it even stricter than George Bush.
Mikhail Vinogradov Director General of the Center for Current politics in Russia
On the 11th of December Dmitry Medvedev said that in case of his victory at the presidential elections he was going to ask Vladimir Putin to take up a prime-minister post. Thus he reanimated Putin`s prime-minister idea, which Putin announced at the congress of “The Joint Russia”, October, the 1st.
There are several dimensions of Medvedev`s suggestions.
Long-term dimension assumes that we are on the start of shaping future power configuration. In this case Putin will surely take up a prime-minister post (or he will probably reconcile posts of prime-minister and secretary of the Security Council) in a status of vice-president. In this case the key intrigue is a duration of Putin`s prime-minister term: permanent – transferring of power center to the government; temporary – for gradual Medvedev`s assimilation as a president; situational – it gives Vladimir Putin opportunity to re-take up presidential post after the pre-term elections. This scheme will decline effect from Medvedev`s positive assumption abroad but that costs will be classified as non-significant.
Tactic dimension refers to the final Medvedev`s institutionalization as a key and the only candidate for presidency from authorities in force. This seems actual due to the fact that “pre-term” nomination of Medvedev (Putin had some days before naming a successor) gave a raise to gossips that this step was a result of a shady political game. In that game Medvedev managed to take the lead over his opponents (they may think over counterblow).
Another consequence of the events listed above is demonstration to political elites that Putin is still master of the situation: it’s not worth swearing to Medvedev and taking Putin as a “former president” and a “lame duck”. The less Putin gets move on answer the sharper elites will feel their dependence from the head of the state in force.
Mikhail Vinogradov
The director general of the Center for current politics in Russia
2007, 11th of December
Vladimir Putin upheld Dmitry Medvedev`s nomination for presidency. Such suggestion was promoted by parties “The Joint Russia”, “The Just Russia”, “The Civil power”, the Agricultural party of Russia. This step will probably put an end both to the idea of several authoritative candidates and to extension of Putin credentials.
