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2009-03-10   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 02.03.2009-08.03.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev’s interview with the Spanish mass media is published

 

 

President will keep ignoring the non-systemic opposition

Dmitry Medvedev meets with part of the president’s top hundred

 

 

The next meeting with other representatives won’t take place soon

Dmitry Medvedev says it is necessary to make the anti-crisis plan understandable to everybody, not just the government

 

 

Dmitry Medvedev will continue criticizing the government provoking a new wave of rumors about split in the tandem

The Supreme Court rules that the Prosecutor General is the highest instance on all HR issues for prosecutors and investigators

Yury Chaika

Alexander Bastrykin

Without changing law there will be no serious redistribution of authority between the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Investigation Committee

Yury Luzhkov speaks in support of Lyudmila Maikova

Oleg Sviridenko

Anton Ivanov

Maikova will have to leave her post anyway

Alexander Misharin is appointed chief of the industry and infrastructure department of the government staff

Igor Levitin, Sergey Sobyanin

 

Sobyanin’s positions in the government staff will keep strengthening

Viktor Risovanny is appointed deputy chief of the federal fisheries agency

 

 

Interests of the Baltic and Far Eastern clans in the agency will be more balanced

Spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky’s interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets

 

 

Rumors about the tandem’s soon breakup and possibility of a coup d’état will keep circulating

Chief of armaments of the Russian armed forces, Vladimir Popovkin, announces the rearmament plan for 2009

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

Plans will be implemented but next year rearmament parameters will drop

The first meeting of Pravoe Delo’s supreme council

 

 

Co-chairpersons will keep debating the party’s strategic goals


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2009-03-02   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 23.02.2009-01.03.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev attends a meeting of the board of the prosecutor general’s office

Dmitry Medvedev, Yury Chaika, Alexander Bastrykin

 

Ratio of authority of investigation committee and prosecutor general’s office will remain unchanged on the whole

Vladimir Putin meets with United Russia’s top figures

Vladimir Putin

 

PM will become less optimistic in evaluating prospects of overcoming the crisis

Vladimir Putin says settling social problems of the society is a priority amid the crisis

Vladimir Putin

 

Authorities will be implementing the medium-term (2-3 years) anti-crisis strategy

Vyacheslav Volodin is elected head of the state construction department at MSU

 

 

This post may become an alternate airfield for Volodin in case of dismissal

Deputy PM Sergey Ivanov says Russia will completely renew its strategic nuclear forces by 2020

 

 

The crisis will negatively influence the current insufficient modernization of the forces

Information is posted that the airborne forces will be reduced as a result of military reforms

 

Anatoly Serdyukov

This will decrease the Russian armed forces’ combat capacity and provoke additional discontent among officers

Dmitry Medvedev submits bills on parties that collect 5% to 7% of the vote and on reducing the number of signatures necessary to participate in elections, to State Duma

Dmitry Medvedev

 

The bills will be passed without considerable changes in the shortest time possible

Lawyer Igor Trunov is elected head of the Moscow branch of Pravoe Delo

 

 

Trunov is unlikely to be a competent manager

Plenum of the Central Committee of the communist party

Gennady Zyuganov

 

Zyuganov will continue mopping up the area around him

Regulations on Rosalcohol are approved

Rosalcohol

Agriculture and finance ministries, federal tax and tariff services

Rosalcohol will not face serious resistance in gaining control over the market


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2009-02-24   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 16.02.2009-22.02.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev says decline in defense expenses will not affect the army’s modernization and social sphere

 

 

Under the conditions of crisis the budget sequester will be substantial and will gradually affect all budget items

The list of the President’s top hundred men is announced

Dmitry Medvedev

 

There will be selective appointments from this list

Alexey Gordeyev and Alexander Kozlov are nominated to governor of Voronezh and Orlov regions respectively

 

 

Candidatures will be approved without problems; Gordeyev’s team will have to leave the agriculture ministry

Just Russia deputies introduce a bill on assigning job quotas to graduates of higher educational establishments

 

 

Just Russia will keep voicing populist initiatives

Higher qualification panel of judges rules to deprive Lyudmila Maikova, head of the federal arbitration court of the Moscow district, of the status of judge

Anton Ivanov

Siloviki

Supreme Arbitration Court chair Anton Ivanov will accelerate the process of creating the arbitration vertical

Supreme Court deputy chair Alexander Karpov resigns

Vyacheslav Lebedev

 

Lebedev’s positions will remain stable in the near future

Valery Zorkin reelected head of the Constitutional Court

Valery Zorkin

 

Zorkin will retain his post in the next three years

Anastasia Rakova appointed head of the legal department of the government staff

Sergey Sobyanin

Igor Sechin

Contrary to rumors, Sobyanin will not leave the Cabinet in the near future

Justice ministry registers Pravoe Delo

 

 

Pravoe Delo will not carry out systemic activities with potential voters in the next few months

Sergey Sobyanin is elected chairman of the board of directors of First Channel

Sergey Sobyanin

Sergey Naryshkin

This change is technical and it will not result in changes in the channel’s policies

Alexey Makushkin is appointed chief of the government’s analytical center

 

 

Makushkin may lean on siloviki and Sergey Chemezov like his predecessor

Alexander Chernogorov is appointed deputy agriculture minister

 

 

The probability that Chernogorov will be promoted to minister is low

Deputy PM Alexander Zhukov commissions the interior ministry and federal tax service to organize deportation of jobless migrants

Alexander Zhukov

 

Zhukov will not increase his media activity and may leave his post in the next few months


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2009-02-16   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 09.02.2009-15.02.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

IC head Alexander Bastrykin says high-ranking officials in the finance ministry participated in massive embezzlement of state funds

Alexander Bastrykin

Alexey Kudrin

Another attack at positions of the finance minister will be soon used up

Prosecutor General’s Office declares about intensification of activities of the interdepartmental group for countering economic crimes

Yury Chaika

MVD, FSB

This direction of activities will only slightly offset the functions Yury Chaika’s office lost

Garry Minkh is appointed Russian presidential representative in the State Duma

Dmitry Medvedev

 

Given the peculiarity of the current political system, Garry Minkh will become a key figure in the State Duma

Dmitry Medvedev approves a new composition of the president’s council for human rights

Dmitry Medvedev

Communist Party

President will keep showing attention to liberals

Dmitry Medvedev declares at a meeting of the State Council about the necessity to humanize the penal system and improve work on giving pardon

Dmitry Medvedev

 

President may draft and submit a corresponding bill in pursuance of his statements

Dmitry Medvedev chairs a meeting of the council for developing informational society

Yury Luzhkov

 

Initiatives on introducing IT into the administrative system are likely to remain on paper to a great extent

Igor Yakovenko is dismissed as Secretary of the Russian Union of Journalists

Dmitry Medvedev

Igor Yakovenko

Dialogue between authorities and the systemic part of the liberals will intensify

NAC and FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov says skinheads pose terrorism threat

 

 

Authorities’ pressure on nationalists will be increasing amid growth in ethnophobia, but it is unlikely to prevent ethnic tension

Rashid Nurgaliyev’s interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Rashid Nurgaliyev

 

MVD may later gradually distance itself from countering ethnophobia

Government decree broadening the list of self-defense weapons for officers of the Prosecutor General’s Office

 

 

This document is of technical character


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2009-02-09   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 02.02.2009-08.02.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev attends a meeting of the enlarged board of MVD

Dmitry Medvedev, Rashid Nurgaliyev

 

President will keep making overtures to power agencies

Dmitry Medvedev submits bill on cutting the minimal quantity of party members to State Duma

Dmitry Medvedev

 

This bill practically won’t change the layout of forces on the party field, but it will enable the president to maintain his liberal image

Pavel Krasheninnikov is elected co-chair of the Russian Association of Lawyers

Pavel Krasheninnikov

 

Delayed projects of the association may be revived

First deputy PM Igor Shuvalov declares about suspension of refinancing of foreign credits of enterprises through Central Bank

Igor Shuvalov

Igor Sechin

Shuvalov will increase control over resources allocated for anti-crisis support to economy

Dmitry Medvedev voices measures aimed at supporting students

Dmitry Medvedev

 

This initiative will face serious counteraction in the academic circles

Vladimir Putin says pensions will be raised more than planned  if inflation surpasses the 2009 target

Vladimir Putin

 

This forecast is likely to be implemented

Defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov says timeframes of military reforms will not be revised

 

 

Decisions on real timeframes of military reforms will depend on dynamics of the crisis

FAS head Igor Artemyev says the conflict around the bill on retail trade should be settled by Vladimir Putin

Anti-monopoly service, agriculture ministry

Industry and trade ministry

Considering the crisis, the decision is likely to be made in favor of the alliance of  FAS and agriculture ministry

Pravoe Delo co-chair Georgy Bovt is commissioned with creation of the party’s Moscow office

 

 

If Bovt is not assisted by an experienced organizer, the task implementation is questionable

The Presnensky Court of Moscow rules to reconsider suit of the filmmakers’ union

 

 

Court will evade making a decision waiting for a decision of the union’s general meeting


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2009-02-02   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 26.01.2009-01.02.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Metropolitan Kirill is elected head of the Russian Orthodox Church

Kirill

Kliment

Kirill will quickly manage to suppress centers of discontent with his election in the ROC

First deputy PM Igor Shuvalov attends a government hour in the State Duma

Igor Sechin

Igor Shuvalov

In case of further deepening of the social and economic crisis, government liberals will become responsible for that

Dmitry Medvedev replaces Veniamin Yakovlev with Sergey Dubik as the president’s representative at Higher Qualification Panel of Judges

Anton Ivanov

Lyudmila Maikova, Oleg Sviridenko

If the panel approves Maikova’s dismissal, Ivanov will restart offensive on Sviridenko’s position in Moscow Arbitration Court

Dmitry Medvedev attends a meeting of the extended board of FSB

Alexander Bortnikov

 

FSB is likely not to actively run after bodies spending anti-crisis funds not as intended

Dmitry Medvedev meets with Novaya Gazeta editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov and its co-owner Mikhail Gorbachev

Dmitry Medvedev

 

President will continue making symbolic steps aimed at maintaining the image of liberal

Dmitry Medvedev meets with representatives of parliamentary parties

 

 

Such meetings will be regularly held in the future

Amendments to State Duma regulations envisaging automatic sending of bills to Public Chamber for examination

Public Chamber

 

This measure will somewhat increase the Chamber’s role in legislative process

Federal bailiff service head Artur Parfenchikov holds press conference

 

 

The service will not give up plans of turning into full-fledged power body

Beginning of reorganization of Federal Service for Ecological, Technological and Atomic Inspection

Yury Trutnev

 

Most notable team members of the service’s ex-head Konstantin Pulikovsky will be substantially demoted or dismissed


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2009-01-26   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 19.01.2009-25.01.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

State Duma passes law on abolishing election deposit at elections of all levels

United Russia, Communist Party

 

This measure will make it possible to finally limit the number of election participants at all levels to representatives of several leading parties

Bill on giving back the right to file criminal cases against special individuals to the Prosecutor General’s Office is submitted to State Duma

Yury Chaika

Alexander Bastrykin

Bill is likely to be rejected or its content will be diluted

Actions in support of the domestic automobile industry and increase in taxes on imported cars

United Russia

 

These events will somewhat neutralize unfavorable information background that emerged after protest actions in the Far East

Federation Council head Sergey Mironov suggests that collection of signatures by all registered parties should be abolished at all elections

Sergey Mironov

 

Proposal may be approved but in the form of UR’s initiative

Igor Chuyan is appointed head of the federal service for alcohol market regulations

Alexey Gordeyev

Anatoly Serdyukov, Mikhail Mokretsov

Chuyan’s rivals may receive influential posts in the service

Pravoe Delo submits documents to the justice ministry for registration

Pravoe Delo

 

The party will be registered without hindrances

Vladimir Piligin, head of the State Duma committee for constitutional law, says the minimal number of members of a party to be registered by the justice ministry will be decreased just by 5,000 to 10,000 members so far

 

 

Deputies will not further decrease the figure unless they are reminded to do so by top authorities

Justice minister Alexander Konovalov says among judges there should be those who came not only from law enforcement bodies but also lawyers and human rights activists

 

 

These words will remain pia desideria in the near term perspective

Staff cleansing in the St. Petersburg branch of the communist party is completed

Gennady Zyuganov

Ivan Melnikov

St. Petersburg’s branch of the party may weaken noticeably

Court rejects suit on finding a decision to dissolve SPS party invalid

Pravoe Delo

 

If this decision is appealed against, it will be dismissed


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2009-01-19   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 29.12.2008-18.01.2009

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev says he has proposed amendments to the Civil Procedure Code broadening possibilities of the Prosecutor General’s Office in civil process

Yury Chaika

 

This authority will not become serious compensation for the loss of investigatory functions

Changes in the procedure of agreeing regulatory legal acts worked out by government bodies

 

 

This will result in emergence of additional conflict field between deputy PMs

Gov’t decides to establish a national company for developing the grain market

Viktor Zubkov, Alexey Gordeyev

 

Deputy PM and agriculture minister will agree on parity control over the company

Dmitry Medvedev’s decree on establishing the federal service for regulating the alcohol market

 

 

It is quite possible that agriculture ministry and federal tax service will try to gain control over the new entity

Boris Kovalchuk retires as director of national projects department of the government staff

 

 

The department is likely to be disbanded or enlarged

Vladimir Shamakhov retires as deputy chief of the government staff

Andrey Belyaninov

 

It will be easier for Belyaninov to lobby interests of his entity at the government staff level

Teimuraz Bolloyev and Anatoly Grebenyuk are appointed deputy heads of Olympstroy state corporation

Dmitry Kozak

Viktor Kolodyazhny

Teimuraz Bolloyev will become an éminence grise in Olympstroy

Andrey Kazmin retires as head of Russian Post

 

Andrey Kazmin, Alla Aleshkina

It is quite possible that law enforcement agencies will try to find out reasons of sharp deterioration of Svyaz Bank’s financial standing

Oleg Mitvol is elected head of Green Alternative public movement

Oleg Mitvol

Vladimir Kirillov

Mitvol will try to oppose the new organization to the Public Council of Rosprirodnadzor

Alexander Fedorov is appointed deputy justice minister

Viktor Cherkesov

 

The new deputy minister will be mediator in alliance between Viktor Cherkesov and Alexander Konovalov

Staff reshuffle in the Russian emergencies ministry

 

 

This reshuffle is technical and it will not affect Sergey Shoigu’s control over the ministry

Vladimir Tokarev is appointed deputy minister of regional development

 

 

This post is temporary for Tokarev; he may join organizations belonging to Gennady Timchenko or Bank Rossiya


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2008-12-31   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 22.12.2008-28.12.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev’s interview with federal TV channels

Dmitry Medvedev

 

President and PM will keep demonstrating tandem’s solidity

Finance minister Alexey Kudrin says next year will be the hardest for Russia over the past nine years

 

 

Alexey Kudrin will continue making harsh statements but this will not result in his dismissal

Creation of white collars’ trade union

Andrey Isayev, Vladimir Medinsky

 

This body will not be able to fully control the target social group

Dmitry Medvedev meets with FSB head Alexander Bortnikov

Dmitry Medvedev

 

State leadership will keep showing determination to employ repressive means against non-systemic opposition

RCNT head Anatoly Chubais says authorities have successfully coped with the first wave of crisis

Anatoly Chubais

 

Anatoly Chubais will oppose non-systemic opposition on behalf of systemic liberals

Igor Yurgens is included in supreme board of Pravoe Delo party

 

 

Intertwining of interests of different elite groups will continue

Mikhail Kopeikin is appointed VEB deputy chair

Mikhail Kopeikin

 

Kopeikin may return to the government

Dmitry Medvedev commissions prosecutor general Yury Chika to supervise observance of anti-graft legislation

 

 

Prosecutor general’s office will be unable to efficiently do this without gaining back investigatory authority

Dmitry Medvedev signs decree on establishing the Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography

Elvira Nabiullina, Igor Manylov, Pavel Krasheninnikov

Yury Petrov

FAUGI head will try to get part of authority of the new entity

Unsuccessful test launch of a Bulava ICBM

 

 

Information on next year launches will be classified again


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2008-12-22   Conjuncture:
MAJOR EVENTS 15.12.2008-21.12.2008

Event

Winning side

Defeated side

Development Outlooks

State Duma passes the presidential package of bills on fighting corruption in the third reading

Dmitry Medvedev

 

Next year there will be attempts to play back by blocking implementation of the most unpleasant provisions for officials

Composition of the government’s anti-crisis commission headed by first deputy PM Igor Shuvalov is announced

Vladimir Putin

 

Commission’s decisions will be implemented quickly with minimal counteraction on the federal level

State Duma passes bill on cancelling election deposit in the first reading

Dmitry Medvedev

 

The bill will be adopted as soon as possible but with amendments

Deputy chief of government staff, Mikhail Kopeikin, resigns

Sergey Sobyanin

Andrey Belousov

The vacated post may be occupied by Sobyanin’s protégé

Bill on establishing Rosavtodor state corporation is submitted to State Duma

Sergey Ivanov, Sergey Sobyanin, Igor Levitin

 

There will be tough struggle for control over the state corporation

Pravoe Delo and OPORa Rossii sign agreement

Pravoe Delo

United Russia

The new party may compete against UR on the right conservative wing

Mass protests in some Russian regions

 

 

The actions have been of warning character so far but they are endangering the political system’s stability

Presidential administration chief Sergey Naryshkin is appointed head of the presidential commission for reforming and developing civil service

Dmitry Medvedev, Sergey Naryshkin

 

Process of creating the staff reserve will be accelerated

Interior troops commander Nikolay Rogozhkin says the process of reducing the troops’ quantity has been frozen

Rashid Nurgaliyev, Nikolay Rogozhkin

 

Interior troops may be reinforced by new weapons and personnel in the near future


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